PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 30 games
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 28 games
Muerta
Save- · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 25 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
551 picks · 618 bans
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
Jakiro
443 picks · 394 bans
Shadow Shaman
427 picks · 471 bans
Terrorblade
410 picks · 852 bans
Tusk
387 picks · 361 bans
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 564 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 9
Model total62% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:33
Team Liquid 41%BETBOOM TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusamiCKe
Nature's ProphetPure~
Ember SpiritNisha
Dragon KnightgpK~
AxeSabeRLight-
Queen of PainMieRo
BatriderAri
Shadow ShamanSave-
TuskBoxi
BaneKataomi
Game 2prediction correct10:37
Team Liquid 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinmiCKe
LifestealerPure~
PangolierNisha
Dark SeerMieRo
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritgpK~
Shadow ShamanAri
MarciSave-
TuskBoxi
WarlockKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 62%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2