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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 5 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 4 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 4 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%

Aim Possible

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Aidar · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
chempik · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 619 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
491 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
445 picks · 394 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
427 picks · 471 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 852 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 563 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 361 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 540 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
TNL DOTA 60%Aim Possible 40%
The model gave 60% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
48% · 58 games52% · 269 games
Doomchempik
Doom
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
49% · 64 games47% · 149 games
LinaRain
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
48% · 167 games57% · 21 game
Witch DoctorAidar
Witch Doctor
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
46% · 96 games
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenflacko
56% · 54 games
Game 2prediction correct34:25
TNL DOTA 63%Aim Possible 37%
The model gave 63% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 58:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceryowaai
75% · 4 games55% · 206 games
Terrorbladechempik
Terrorblade
Batrider
Batriderdualrazee
52% · 89 games49% · 55 games
LeshracRain
Leshrac
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
40% · 41 game57% · 9 games
DazzleAidar
Dazzle
Ringmaster
Ringmasterflacko
51% · 90 games
Marci
MarciFernans
42% · 46 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 71%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2