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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 30 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 26 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 25 games
52%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 23 games
61%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 22 games
68%

Natus Vincere

Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 26 games
62%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 24 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sancity · 14 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 624 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
447 picks · 396 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
423 picks · 469 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 849 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 359 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 564 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 538 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
BETBOOM TEAM 65%Natus Vincere 35%
The model gave 65% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPure~
51% · 156 games47% · 244 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMieRo
46% · 170 games45% · 161 game
DawnbreakerBOOM
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
45% · 206 games52% · 366 games
TinyCopy
Tiny
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKataomi
60% · 166 games57% · 171 game
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Muerta
MuertaSave-
51% · 455 games48% · 211 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct41:16
BETBOOM TEAM 64%Natus Vincere 36%
The model gave 64% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPure~
51% · 216 games44% · 303 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KinggpK~
55% · 337 games45% · 247 games
GyrocopterYuragi
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackMieRo
58% · 390 games43% · 311 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
46% · 200 games48% · 158 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Bane
BaneKataomi
63% · 68 games50% · 192 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 74%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2