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BLAST Slam VIII. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
4ikibamboniwin 1:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4ikibamboni

Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 13 games
62%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 11 games
45%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 10 games
40%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
waveformn · 10 games
70%
Bane
Baneoften banned
ani-san · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 8 games
63%
Viper
Vipersignature
Ethereal · 8 games
88%
Windranger
Windranger
waveformn · 8 games
13%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 36 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 29 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kami · 23 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Kami · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 328 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
345 picks · 459 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 518 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 500 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 643 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
285 picks · 314 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
271 picks · 196 bans
47%
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 145 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:34
4ikibamboni 27%Zero Tenacity 73%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 45:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 73%
Series result4ikibamboni 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1