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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 28 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%

Natus Vincere

Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 26 games
62%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
70%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sancity · 14 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 625 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
454 picks · 400 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
418 picks · 465 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
408 picks · 852 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 354 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 567 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 534 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:27
Tundra Esports 69%Natus Vincere 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
51% · 101 game54% · 240 games
GyrocopterYuragi
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorCrystallis
45% · 93 games45% · 208 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Doom
Doom33
52% · 209 games57% · 33 games
Vengeful SpiritBOOM
Vengeful Spirit
Marci
MarciSaksa
49% · 93 games40% · 79 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWhitemon
56% · 196 games52% · 132 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed32:42
Tundra Esports 71%Natus Vincere 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
38% · 102 games52% · 231 game
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
56% · 138 games50% · 277 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 319 games59% · 163 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
44% · 183 games54% · 176 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
49% · 227 games47% · 122 games
MarciAri
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2