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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 34 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 21 game
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%

BETBOOM TEAM

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 26 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 24 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 23 games
61%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 625 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
491 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
453 picks · 400 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
417 picks · 464 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
407 picks · 851 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 353 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 566 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:27
Team Spirit 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 243 games52% · 193 games
Templar AssassinPure~
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
51% · 200 games49% · 77 games
LeshracgpK~
Leshrac
Mars
MarsCollapse
44% · 137 games49% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
48% · 38 games55% · 226 games
Nature's ProphetKataomi
Nature's Prophet
Jakiro
Jakirorue
51% · 237 games53% · 194 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed11:28
Team Spirit 55%BETBOOM TEAM 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
45% · 108 games39% · 48 games
LycanMieRo
Lycan
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
46% · 197 games55% · 166 games
Templar AssassinPure~
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
39% · 76 games59% · 161 game
PuckgpK~
Puck
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
39% · 151 game65% · 36 games
BaneKataomi
Bane
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
51% · 83 games59% · 204 games
Shadow ShamanSave-
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2