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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 13 games
54%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
52%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 14 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
мистер мораль · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 624 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
491 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
453 picks · 400 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
416 picks · 464 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
407 picks · 851 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 352 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 566 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total52% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:58
Runa Team 53%4Pirates 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyShigetsu
55% · 236 games41% · 121 game
Queen of PainOtaker
Queen of Pain
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
55% · 145 games52% · 180 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaAlberkaaa
50% · 71 game44% · 132 games
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanqueezy
52% · 113 games48% · 72 games
AxePERDAN4IK
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHduo
60% · 114 games42% · 174 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct43:51
Runa Team 50%4Pirates 50%
The model gave 50% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 49:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painnicky`cool
48% · 156 games51% · 160 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
49% · 199 games57% · 52 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
49% · 148 games51% · 299 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
51% · 312 games47% · 297 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
48% · 99 games52% · 106 games
Centaur WarrunnerPERDAN4IK
Centaur Warrunner
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 52%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2