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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 24 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
70%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 15 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 29 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 28 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 25 games
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 21 game
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 626 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
456 picks · 402 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
411 picks · 463 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
406 picks · 854 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
383 picks · 352 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:23
Natus Vincere 41%Xtreme Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
45% · 241 game43% · 114 games
Queen of PainAme
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckCopy
50% · 257 games54% · 112 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonBOOM
49% · 96 games57% · 268 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
51% · 195 games55% · 171 game
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
46% · 249 games50% · 373 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct22:32
Natus Vincere 41%Xtreme Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuragi
48% · 485 games45% · 368 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Huskar
HuskarCopy
65% · 30 games47% · 299 games
PuckXm
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
47% · 475 games52% · 233 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
53% · 295 games54% · 211 games
Shadow ShamanPoloson
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionKaori
52% · 230 games47% · 404 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct33:32
Natus Vincere 41%Xtreme Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 53:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyCopy
51% · 367 games49% · 78 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Abaddon
AbaddonYuragi
52% · 93 games47% · 406 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Axe
AxeBOOM
52% · 74 games54% · 30 games
OmniknightAme
Omniknight
Marci
MarciAri
47% · 133 games50% · 112 games
Naga SirenPoloson
Naga Siren
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
54% · 155 games48% · 196 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 69%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3