?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 26 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 17 games
65%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
78%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 627 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
456 picks · 402 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
411 picks · 463 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
407 picks · 852 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 350 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 8
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Gaimin Gladiators 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorWatson
41% · 142 games54% · 224 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckQuinn
52% · 294 games58% · 150 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Axe
AxeAce
39% · 31 game53% · 61 game
Abaddon33
Abaddon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
46% · 299 games56% · 279 games
BatriderSaksa
Batrider
Oracle
OracleMalady
51% · 71 game46% · 123 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed30:7
Gaimin Gladiators 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendQuinn
45% · 106 games49% · 74 games
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Ursa
UrsaWatson
45% · 111 games51% · 196 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
46% · 167 games49% · 37 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Venomancer
VenomancerMalady
47% · 41 game60% · 96 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Batrider
BatridertOfu
51% · 297 games54% · 319 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Game 3prediction missed25:13
Gaimin Gladiators 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendQuinn
48% · 195 games49% · 320 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
53% · 349 games51% · 151 game
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Templar Assassin
Omniknight
OmniknightAce
53% · 63 games50% · 99 games
Abaddon33
Abaddon
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
47% · 327 games50% · 235 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Marci
MarcitOfu
49% · 152 games53% · 281 game
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3