European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 8 games
Doomoften banned
ififall · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 2 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Leshrac
Rain · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
551 picks · 626 bans
Ringmaster
491 picks · 249 bans
Jakiro
456 picks · 402 bans
Shadow Shaman
411 picks · 463 bans
Terrorblade
406 picks · 851 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
382 picks · 348 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Yellow Submarine 74%Aim Possible 26%
The model gave 74% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinbottega
Alchemistchempik
BeastmasterInfernal
Storm SpiritRain
Void SpiritMirele
DazzleAidar
Shadow Demonmrls
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction correct59:25
Yellow Submarine 73%Aim Possible 27%
The model gave 73% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:04:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painbottega
Terrorbladechempik
TinyMirele
PuckRain
AxeInfernal
Dark WillowAidar
Shadow Demonmrls
RingmasterXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 87%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2