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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 33 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 30 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
76%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 16 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 16 games
56%

BETBOOM TEAM

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 24 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
59%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 627 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 402 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
411 picks · 459 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
403 picks · 851 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 348 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 567 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:40
Team Tidebound 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
49% · 144 games45% · 170 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Bristleback
BristlebackFaith_bian
62% · 235 games45% · 114 games
LifestealerPure~
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
45% · 118 games47% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinypLAnet
53% · 431 game51% · 177 games
Nature's ProphetKataomi
Nature's Prophet
Disruptor
Disruptory`
53% · 70 games49% · 369 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed28:28
Team Tidebound 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetshiro
51% · 189 games55% · 279 games
Monkey KingPure~
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
44% · 142 games52% · 319 games
PangolierMieRo
Pangolier
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
54% · 20 games55% · 28 games
HuskargpK~
Huskar
Doom
DoompLAnet
48% · 222 games45% · 173 games
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Batrider
Batridery`
46% · 290 games57% · 64 games
OracleKataomi
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct18:36
Team Tidebound 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
47% · 229 games54% · 323 games
GyrocopterPure~
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
53% · 171 game51% · 266 games
Monkey KinggpK~
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
52% · 125 games50% · 147 games
Queen of PainMieRo
Queen of Pain
Warlock
Warlocky`
43% · 124 games51% · 218 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
48% · 344 games53% · 39 games
BaneKataomi
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 64%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3