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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 16 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
60%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
20%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 634 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 411 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 854 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
407 picks · 459 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
389 picks · 345 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 565 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:23
4Pirates 70%Team Lynx 30%
The model gave 70% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainOtaker
41% · 41 game51% · 75 games
Shadow Fiendmellojul
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
53% · 79 games48% · 134 games
Kunkka7jesu
Kunkka
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetariel
44% · 83 games58% · 85 games
TidehunterStoneBank
Tidehunter
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
43% · 16 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
53% · 75 games
Game 2prediction correct35:26
4Pirates 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNattyNarwhal
55% · 269 games46% · 246 games
Terrorblade7jesu
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
50% · 103 games43% · 379 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark Seerмистер мораль
56% · 154 games51% · 73 games
SlardarStoneBank
Slardar
Axe
AxePERDAN4IK
59% · 38 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanariel
50% · 134 games
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 82%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2