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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 23 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 21 game
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 15 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%

BETBOOM TEAM

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 29 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 24 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 21 game
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 635 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 414 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
413 picks · 855 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
407 picks · 456 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
389 picks · 345 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 565 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:31
Natus Vincere 32%BETBOOM TEAM 68%
The model gave 68% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:01:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
52% · 89 games56% · 141 game
LinaPure~
Lina
Undying
UndyingBOOM
48% · 61 game46% · 146 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
45% · 262 games65% · 150 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockKaori
39% · 117 games48% · 113 games
Ogre MagiKataomi
Ogre Magi
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
48% · 160 games51% · 139 games
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct39:28
Natus Vincere 33%BETBOOM TEAM 67%
The model gave 67% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
46% · 152 games53% · 134 games
LinaPure~
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
53% · 270 games49% · 278 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKaori
42% · 133 games51% · 274 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeBOOM
50% · 48 games59% · 102 games
Naga SirenKataomi
Naga Siren
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
47% · 211 games45% · 26 games
Witch DoctorSave-
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction missed34:12
Natus Vincere 32%BETBOOM TEAM 68%
The model gave 68% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuragi
53% · 411 games53% · 143 games
LinaPure~
Lina
Puck
PuckCopy
56% · 268 games49% · 102 games
Void SpiritgpK~
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeBOOM
51% · 66 games47% · 426 games
PangolierMieRo
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingKaori
57% · 77 games42% · 79 games
Ogre MagiKataomi
Ogre Magi
Marci
MarciAri
47% · 135 games46% · 207 games
Dark WillowSave-
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3