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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 12 games
17%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 10 games
30%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Michael · 10 games
30%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
25%

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 27 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 21 game
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 20 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
555 picks · 637 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
464 picks · 414 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
412 picks · 855 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
406 picks · 456 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 565 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 343 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total79% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:22
Edge 32%Heroic 68%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Edge in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenParker
49% · 227 games48% · 277 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
52% · 232 games50% · 206 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Axe
AxeVitaly
54% · 22 games47% · 385 games
Dragon Knight4nalog
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixPuppey
55% · 241 game46% · 34 games
Spirit BreakerScofield
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
TuskMichael
50% · 214 games51% · 34 games
BaneKJ
Bane
Game 2prediction correct13:35
Edge 35%Heroic 65%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerParker
53% · 102 games50% · 265 games
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPiPi
42% · 151 game46% · 168 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaVitaly
62% · 173 games41% · 25 games
AxeWisper
Axe
Chen
ChenPuppey
60% · 123 games47% · 265 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMichael
49% · 378 games44% · 204 games
Dark WillowScofield
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct20:28
Edge 32%Heroic 68%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
54% · 268 games53% · 293 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
53% · 442 games49% · 217 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
47% · 213 games51% · 464 games
Tiny4nalog
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixPuppey
49% · 382 games53% · 323 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Marci
MarciMichael
39% · 154 games51% · 162 games
Shadow ShamanKJ
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 79%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3