?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 26 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 25 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 636 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 415 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 853 bans
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
403 picks · 454 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 337 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:21
Aurora Gaming 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
45% · 101 game47% · 175 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
55% · 188 games47% · 206 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 157 games53% · 217 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Batrider
BatriderPanto
52% · 288 games44% · 333 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskMira
48% · 280 games53% · 83 games
OracleWhitemon
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed35:24
Aurora Gaming 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
46% · 86 games49% · 139 games
Shadow Fiendbzm
Shadow Fiend
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
49% · 212 games48% · 126 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Enigma
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 128 games55% · 141 game
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
49% · 193 games52% · 212 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Marci
MarciMira
43% · 117 games54% · 118 games
Shadow ShamanWhitemon
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2