PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 49 games
Jakiro
Fly · 25 games
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 22 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 20 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 19 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 16 games
Heroic
Magnussignature
Wisper · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 20 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 20 games
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
563 picks · 639 bans
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
Jakiro
469 picks · 419 bans
Terrorblade
410 picks · 854 bans
Shadow Shaman
398 picks · 452 bans
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 565 bans
Tusk
384 picks · 336 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 530 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
AVULUS 42%Heroic 58%
The model gave 58% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackSmiling Knight
LinaYuma
SlardarMo13ei
Puck4nalog
UndyingXibbe
PangolierWisper
Dark WillowdEsire
TuskScofield
WarlockFly
Shadow ShamanKJ
Game 2prediction correct16:28
AVULUS 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSmiling Knight
Templar AssassinYuma
LycanXibbe
Dark SeerWisper
Storm SpiritMo13ei
Monkey King4nalog
Shadow ShamandEsire
ClockwerkScofield
OracleFly
Ogre MagiKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 66%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2