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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 33 games
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
OmaR · 31 game
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 25 games
68%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 23 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
38%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 19 games
37%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
38%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 643 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
474 picks · 422 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
411 picks · 857 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
395 picks · 451 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 338 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 531 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed1:0
Nigma Galaxy 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 51:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
45% · 227 games52% · 152 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
51% · 412 games57% · 223 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
49% · 206 games50% · 134 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
53% · 168 games48% · 303 games
DoomShad
Doom
Razor
RazorSumaiL
49% · 134 games47% · 335 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Game 2prediction missed6:27
Nigma Galaxy 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGhost
50% · 247 games44% · 101 game
UnderlordShad
Underlord
Mars
MarsNo!ob
50% · 166 games48% · 158 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
53% · 325 games59% · 262 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
50% · 247 games49% · 384 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Io
IoGH
40% · 45 games53% · 125 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2