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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Edgeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 32 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 21 game
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
18%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 10 games
30%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PiPi · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 9 games
22%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Michael · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 643 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
473 picks · 422 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 856 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
394 picks · 451 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 338 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 531 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 35%
Hero pool strength65% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
Team Spirit 86%Edge 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
49% · 149 games45% · 198 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
50% · 443 games46% · 366 games
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
57% · 313 games42% · 315 games
PangolierVitaly
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenrue
55% · 151 game44% · 116 games
Elder TitanPuppey
Elder Titan
Bane
BaneMiposhka
62% · 80 games52% · 141 game
Shadow ShamanMichael
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct32:38
Team Spirit 85%Edge 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
46% · 163 games49% · 343 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
56% · 324 games52% · 336 games
BatriderPiPi
Batrider
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
49% · 294 games50% · 165 games
TidehunterVitaly
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
54% · 234 games43% · 383 games
PhoenixPuppey
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
48% · 296 games53% · 84 games
RikiMichael
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 96%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2