?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 33 games
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
OmaR · 31 game
61%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 25 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 23 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
41%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 22 games
41%

Natus Vincere

Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 20 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 20 games
70%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 640 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 424 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
403 picks · 857 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
390 picks · 442 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 335 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 835 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
Nigma Galaxy 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGhost
55% · 240 games43% · 149 games
Queen of PainCopy
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
48% · 316 games49% · 144 games
AbaddonYuragi
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
55% · 285 games49% · 504 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
49% · 292 games50% · 177 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Io
IoGH
43% · 37 games55% · 196 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct20:4
Nigma Galaxy 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
52% · 115 games52% · 104 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Kunkka
KunkkaSumaiL
57% · 112 games50% · 147 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo!ob
52% · 77 games46% · 69 games
SlardarCopy
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
37% · 176 games59% · 122 games
Naga SirenKaori
Naga Siren
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
49% · 98 games47% · 136 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed38:46
Nigma Galaxy 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 55:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGhost
50% · 172 games54% · 147 games
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
55% · 131 game75% · 4 games
Arc WardenCopy
Arc Warden
Axe
AxeNo!ob
51% · 37 games44% · 193 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
54% · 86 games48% · 40 games
Vengeful SpiritKaori
Vengeful Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroOmaR
55% · 128 games43% · 170 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3