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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 19 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 25 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 19 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 639 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 424 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
401 picks · 856 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
387 picks · 440 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 567 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 333 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 835 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:41
Team Liquid 57%Heroic 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 49:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
46% · 140 games53% · 131 game
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
43% · 99 games55% · 201 game
DoomYuma
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
44% · 169 games45% · 241 game
Beastmaster4nalog
Beastmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTobi
50% · 80 games60% · 70 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
50% · 159 games75% · 4 games
Spirit BreakerScofield
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct26:24
Team Liquid 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoommiCKe
55% · 177 games49% · 163 games
Sniper4nalog
Sniper
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
48% · 191 game51% · 155 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Puck
PuckNisha
55% · 197 games38% · 44 games
AxeWisper
Axe
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTobi
47% · 114 games52% · 285 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
54% · 274 games46% · 306 games
Dark WillowScofield
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct50:23
Team Liquid 56%Heroic 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
46% · 136 games47% · 142 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
39% · 46 games54% · 188 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Tiny
TinyNisha
53% · 335 games43% · 92 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Venomancer
VenomancerTobi
65% · 26 games52% · 157 games
Dark WillowScofield
Dark Willow
Marci
MarciBoxi
52% · 118 games52% · 82 games
Naga SirenKJ
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3