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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 43 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 26 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 24 games
79%

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 26 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
55%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 638 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
401 picks · 855 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
384 picks · 438 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
380 picks · 564 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 330 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 835 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total78% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
Tundra Esports 68%Xtreme Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbzm
54% · 252 games43% · 138 games
Queen of PainAme
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
54% · 272 games51% · 324 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Abaddon
Abaddon33
49% · 108 games55% · 114 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
47% · 288 games47% · 357 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
53% · 182 games48% · 169 games
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct29:17
Tundra Esports 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallis
50% · 189 games54% · 163 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
42% · 107 games58% · 202 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
49% · 114 games44% · 84 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenWhitemon
53% · 93 games40% · 153 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
58% · 149 games53% · 50 games
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed16:25
Tundra Esports 66%Xtreme Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
37% · 96 games50% · 245 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
54% · 60 games47% · 104 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Sand King
Sand King33
55% · 226 games52% · 163 games
KunkkaXxs
Kunkka
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
44% · 99 games56% · 213 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskSaksa
48% · 355 games55% · 111 games
MiranaPoloson
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 78%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3