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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 32 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 30 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
80%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 19 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 15 games
73%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Rein · 15 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 637 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
464 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
400 picks · 854 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
383 picks · 436 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 564 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 327 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 834 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:5
Team Tidebound 65%Virtus.pro 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
48% · 193 games55% · 216 games
DoomV-Tune
Doom
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
42% · 59 games51% · 216 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
44% · 506 games59% · 242 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Earthshaker
EarthshakerpLAnet
51% · 169 games48% · 182 games
Dark WillowAntares
Dark Willow
Abaddon
Abaddony`
53% · 115 games46% · 186 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct17:4
Team Tidebound 66%Virtus.pro 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzshiro
51% · 48 games49% · 41 game
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNothingToSay
49% · 105 games48% · 203 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
51% · 190 games57% · 147 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Undying
Undyingy`
46% · 52 games57% · 84 games
Shadow ShamanAntares
Shadow Shaman
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
46% · 135 games42% · 55 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 80%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2