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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 27 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
41%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 26 games
31%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 19 games
74%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 17 games
82%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 634 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 248 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
463 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
399 picks · 850 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
378 picks · 435 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 562 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 327 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 831 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:36
Zero Tenacity 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirage
55% · 274 games49% · 154 games
TidehunterFayde
Tidehunter
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNande
54% · 208 games48% · 121 game
UrsaYamSun
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
47% · 189 games47% · 382 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
46% · 173 games55% · 98 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPablo
50% · 164 games48% · 253 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed37:10
Zero Tenacity 39%Wildcard Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
50% · 168 games48% · 81 game
Troll WarlordYamSun
Troll Warlord
Batrider
BatriderMirage
51% · 301 game47% · 311 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
53% · 97 games55% · 198 games
DoomFayde
Doom
Rubick
RubickPablo
46% · 163 games50% · 108 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Silencer
SilencerLeBronDota
52% · 110 games49% · 141 game
Shadow ShamanBignum
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed30:14
Zero Tenacity 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMirage
53% · 103 games44% · 173 games
KunkkaYamSun
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNande
49% · 149 games50% · 67 games
Death ProphetFayde
Death Prophet
Omniknight
OmniknightNefrit
52% · 23 games60% · 51 game
RikiRCY
Riki
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPablo
55% · 101 game41% · 36 games
AxeBignum
Axe
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
49% · 112 games47% · 161 game
RingmasterSpeeed
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 69%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3