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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 33 games
76%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
39%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 23 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 23 games
39%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 22 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 22 games
59%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 21 game
57%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
re1bl · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 634 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
486 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
399 picks · 845 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
377 picks · 561 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
376 picks · 434 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 325 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 831 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
Nigma Galaxy 65%Yellow Submarine 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
48% · 240 games53% · 328 games
Bristlebackbottega
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNo!ob
45% · 93 games54% · 90 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
49% · 179 games47% · 53 games
AxeInfernal
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
52% · 171 game53% · 245 games
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
48% · 187 games47% · 154 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct25:11
Nigma Galaxy 66%Yellow Submarine 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGhost
51% · 259 games47% · 318 games
Doombottega
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
51% · 311 games49% · 346 games
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
57% · 251 game52% · 342 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
48% · 207 games43% · 131 game
SilencerXakoda
Silencer
Tusk
TuskGH
47% · 334 games55% · 225 games
Shadow Shamanlupsione
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct18:5
Nigma Galaxy 66%Yellow Submarine 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
52% · 148 games41% · 152 games
Kunkkabottega
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
52% · 293 games52% · 227 games
DoomInfernal
Doom
Arc Warden
Arc WardenSumaiL
71% · 3 games46% · 14 games
Outworld DestroyerMirele
Outworld Destroyer
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
56% · 138 games49% · 321 game
Jakirolupsione
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterOmaR
50% · 201 game48% · 69 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3