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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 15 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
45%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 8 games
38%

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 26 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
62%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 20 games
55%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 633 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
485 picks · 247 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
399 picks · 844 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 560 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
372 picks · 434 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 325 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 830 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 7
Model total64% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:28
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 45:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzPalos
57% · 45 games51% · 213 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierTino-
45% · 410 games39% · 128 games
KunkkaArmel
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickShanks
49% · 160 games51% · 278 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Ringmaster
Ringmastercml
51% · 218 games57% · 69 games
MiranaJaunuel
Mirana
56% · 145 games
Shadow ShamanTims
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed35:22
Execration 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 47:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
57% · 88 games41% · 117 games
KunkkaJaCkky
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTino-
46% · 134 games45% · 48 games
LeshracArmel
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderShanks
54% · 200 games51% · 179 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Naga Siren
Naga Sirencml
52% · 94 games53% · 33 games
VenomancerJaunuel
Venomancer
50% · 139 games
Shadow ShamanTims
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct8:22
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPalos
49% · 443 games55% · 154 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Venomancer
VenomancerShanks
52% · 28 games50% · 91 game
KunkkaArmel
Kunkka
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTino-
47% · 86 games53% · 110 games
Dark SeerJabz
Dark Seer
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
54% · 31 game44% · 172 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
52% · 61 game
Chaos KnightTims
Chaos Knight
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 64%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3