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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 28 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 28 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 27 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 27 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 22 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 21 game
43%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
60%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 633 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
483 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
398 picks · 842 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 558 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
371 picks · 430 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 325 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 830 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 37%
Hero pool strength60% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total81% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:29
Natus Vincere Junior 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by OG in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
41% · 255 games54% · 93 games
Naga SirenShad
Naga Siren
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritpma
44% · 17 games55% · 79 games
UndyingMikSa`
Undying
Tiny
TinyNiku
51% · 332 games51% · 231 game
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Magnus
MagnusZayac
52% · 207 games54% · 178 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
51% · 140 games46% · 370 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct21:2
Natus Vincere Junior 69%OG 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
53% · 249 games46% · 132 games
LinaStormstormer
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
49% · 168 games52% · 125 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
49% · 151 game54% · 87 games
Void SpiritShad
Void Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
44% · 155 games56% · 197 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
49% · 154 games47% · 336 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct32:12
Natus Vincere Junior 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
53% · 213 games55% · 321 game
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
48% · 356 games50% · 100 games
Void SpiritShad
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
49% · 218 games54% · 222 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderZayac
46% · 298 games49% · 101 game
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
48% · 118 games49% · 459 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3