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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 17 games
71%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 16 games
50%

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 20 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
28%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 632 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
483 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
457 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
398 picks · 840 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 555 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
369 picks · 429 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 324 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 829 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
Wildcard Gaming 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 23:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYamSun
47% · 222 games61% · 56 games
Drow RangerEyesight
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
43% · 324 games39% · 49 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFayde
47% · 75 games56% · 302 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Chen
ChenSpeeed
57% · 90 games53% · 176 games
Shadow ShamanGilgir
Shadow Shaman
Batrider
BatriderBignum
52% · 249 games46% · 377 games
TuskBb3px
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Wildcard Gaming 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYamSun
53% · 220 games49% · 207 games
SvenEyesight
Sven
Puck
PuckRCY
55% · 200 games54% · 382 games
BristlebackCorrupted
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierFayde
43% · 423 games44% · 293 games
Primal BeastDifference
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSpeeed
56% · 132 games52% · 82 games
OracleBb3px
Oracle
Batrider
BatriderBignum
50% · 332 games47% · 343 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 60%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2