The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 18 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Yellow Submarine
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 10 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
Lion
mrls · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
561 picks · 633 bans
Ringmaster
482 picks · 247 bans
Jakiro
460 picks · 425 bans
Terrorblade
398 picks · 840 bans
Storm Spirit
374 picks · 556 bans
Tusk
370 picks · 325 bans
Shadow Shaman
368 picks · 428 bans
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 830 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:29
1w Team 64%Yellow Submarine 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMunkushi~
Medusabottega
Ember SpiritSquad1x
PangolierMirele
AbaddonSSS
MagnusInfernal
Banekasane
RingmasterXakoda
Batriderswedenstrong
Shadow Shamanlupsione
Game 2prediction missed29:38
1w Team 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySquad1x
Storm SpiritMirele
UrsaMunkushi~
Doombottega
MagnusSSS
TimbersawInfernal
Miranakasane
Batriderlupsione
Dark Willowswedenstrong
SilencerXakoda
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2