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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 11 games
45%

4Pirates

Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
39%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 628 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
482 picks · 245 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
455 picks · 427 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
396 picks · 836 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
370 picks · 553 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 322 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
362 picks · 423 bans
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 827 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 73%
Hero pool strength60% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:31
OG 48%4Pirates 52%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by OG in 51:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
49% · 125 games58% · 33 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Lycan
LycanShad
58% · 65 games43% · 253 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStormstormer
52% · 82 games44% · 78 games
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
46% · 209 games53% · 120 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneDaze
58% · 49 games49% · 46 games
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Undying
Game 2prediction missed29:11
OG 47%4Pirates 53%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by OG in 27:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
52% · 215 games54% · 279 games
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStormstormer
50% · 114 games47% · 359 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterMikSa`
48% · 172 games51% · 147 games
WeaverOtaker
Weaver
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
50% · 340 games51% · 160 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
46% · 377 games52% · 273 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 56%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2