The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 18 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 26 games
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 26 games
Pucksignature
Niku · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
Phoenix
Riddys · 21 game
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
559 picks · 628 bans
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
Jakiro
457 picks · 428 bans
Terrorblade
395 picks · 834 bans
Storm Spirit
368 picks · 554 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 322 bans
Shadow Shaman
358 picks · 422 bans
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 827 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total69% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:15
1w Team 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMunkushi~
TimbersawNiku
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Terrorbladegotthejuice
DoomSSS
Pangolierpma
Nature's Prophetkasane
RubickZayac
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
WarlockRiddys
Game 2prediction correct13:24
1w Team 39%Natus Vincere Junior 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSquad1x
Doomgotthejuice
RazorSSS
Vengeful Spiritpma
LifestealerMunkushi~
TinyNiku
Naga Sirenkasane
RingmasterRiddys
Dark Willowswedenstrong
MagnusZayac
Game 3prediction correct13:33
1w Team 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSquad1x
Doomgotthejuice
AxeSSS
TinyNiku
Drow RangerMunkushi~
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Undyingkasane
MagnusZayac
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
WarlockRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 69%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3