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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Quantum Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 29 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 19 games
26%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 18 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 16 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 14 games
36%

Quantum Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fezor · 13 games
23%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 9 games
22%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 625 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 430 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
394 picks · 831 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 557 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 323 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 826 bans
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
358 picks · 417 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
Passion UA 48%Quantum Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMoonlight
47% · 454 games57% · 215 games
TerrorbladeLukas
Terrorblade
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerCrystallize
55% · 39 games54% · 259 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsBatyuk
41% · 162 games55% · 208 games
Dark SeerPalantimos
Dark Seer
Marci
Marcikreker
43% · 114 games40% · 61 game
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
55% · 163 games52% · 189 games
Invokeremptiness
Invoker
Game 2prediction correct26:36
Passion UA 47%Quantum Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallize
48% · 137 games54% · 318 games
MuertaLukas
Muerta
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBatyuk
45% · 145 games54% · 76 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
52% · 55 games51% · 313 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderQBFY
45% · 260 games57% · 124 games
Rubickemptiness
Rubick
Tusk
Tuskkreker
48% · 312 games48% · 78 games
UndyingMary_y
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 53%
Series resultQuantum Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2