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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rupido · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
80%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
75%

Talon Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 26 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 26 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 24 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 22 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 22 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 622 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
481 picks · 241 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 431 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 828 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 552 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 323 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 820 bans
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
355 picks · 412 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total93% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Ivory 20%Talon Esports 80%
The model gave 80% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainKen
42% · 116 games54% · 53 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaRupido
51% · 142 games51% · 118 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDric~
57% · 141 game53% · 112 games
DoomWs
Doom
44% · 45 games
SlarkJhocam
Slark
47% · 71 game
WarlockKuku
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct10:30
Ivory 20%Talon Esports 80%
The model gave 80% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckKen
50% · 254 games47% · 112 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierRupido
43% · 440 games55% · 195 games
Doom23savage
Doom
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDric~
50% · 271 game51% · 294 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
48% · 332 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
69% · 32 games
BaneKuku
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 93%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2