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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 51 game
49%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 21 game
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 21 game
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 19 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 19 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%

4Pirates

Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
39%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
482 picks · 241 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 432 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 818 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 546 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 818 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 320 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
352 picks · 408 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 72%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:24
AVULUS 55%4Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
52% · 73 games41% · 14 games
ClinkzOtaker
Clinkz
Puck
PuckMo13ei
53% · 119 games53% · 125 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
50% · 59 games50% · 107 games
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
46% · 130 games45% · 157 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFly
50% · 70 games53% · 48 games
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Undying
Game 2prediction missed16:25
AVULUS 52%4Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
55% · 106 games57% · 3 games
Arc WardenNattyNarwhal
Arc Warden
Undying
UndyingXibbe
53% · 63 games47% · 45 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMo13ei
53% · 45 games47% · 75 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
51% · 270 games45% · 223 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Silencer
SilencerFly
46% · 53 games51% · 191 game
Batriderariel
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 59%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2