CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 20 games
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 30 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 24 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
562 picks · 616 bans
Ringmaster
482 picks · 241 bans
Jakiro
460 picks · 432 bans
Terrorblade
392 picks · 818 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 546 bans
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 818 bans
Tusk
355 picks · 320 bans
Shadow Shaman
352 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
One Move 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaWoE
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Death ProphetDifference
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Enigmamangekyou
Nature's ProphetGilgir
Dark Willowqueezy
UndyingBb3px
TuskHduo
Game 2prediction missed30:18
One Move 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by One Move in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperDifference
Drow RangerShigetsu
Void SpiritWoE
Batridernicky`cool
Death ProphetCorrupted
Bristlebackmangekyou
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
Shadow Shamanqueezy
EarthshakerGilgir
UndyingHduo
Game 3prediction correct20:39
One Move 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerWoE
LifestealerShigetsu
NecrophosDifference
Tinynicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Undyingmangekyou
Shadow DemonGilgir
Shadow Shamanqueezy
TuskBb3px
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 54%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3