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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jaunuel · 20 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 20 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 20 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
53%

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 2 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 2 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Raven · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Raven · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 618 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 813 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 539 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 816 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 317 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
349 picks · 400 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:25
BOOM Esports 67%Team Nemesis 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
48% · 240 games51% · 53 games
Death ProphetMac
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritArmel
52% · 247 games49% · 515 games
TinyAkashi
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
54% · 146 games50% · 153 games
KunkkaRaven
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixJaunuel
49% · 215 games50% · 190 games
LionJing
Lion
Slark
SlarkTims
46% · 63 games
Game 2prediction correct26:17
BOOM Esports 67%Team Nemesis 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 50:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracArmel
48% · 69 games49% · 351 game
TinyAkashi
Tiny
Sven
SvenJaCkky
50% · 244 games45% · 75 games
Queen of PainMac
Queen of Pain
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJabz
52% · 224 games55% · 187 games
Dark SeerRaven
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJaunuel
58% · 159 games40% · 151 game
RubickJing
Rubick
Slark
SlarkTims
57% · 68 games
Game 3prediction missed5:25
BOOM Esports 66%Team Nemesis 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyJaCkky
49% · 213 games54% · 83 games
RazorAkashi
Razor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetArmel
55% · 23 games53% · 132 games
SlardarMac
Slardar
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
53% · 88 games46% · 204 games
KunkkaRaven
Kunkka
Tusk
TuskTims
48% · 165 games47% · 126 games
SnapfireJing
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockJaunuel
49% · 56 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 79%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3