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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 15 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 12 games
75%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 18 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 434 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
390 picks · 806 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 535 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
354 picks · 810 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
350 picks · 309 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
343 picks · 389 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:34
MOUZ 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
44% · 319 games54% · 298 games
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzeal
54% · 54 games56% · 247 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Tiny
TinyAbed
50% · 417 games53% · 275 games
DoomSSS
Doom
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSeleri
45% · 48 games51% · 259 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskEkki
45% · 448 games51% · 207 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct20:28
MOUZ 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKami
60% · 224 games42% · 228 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAbed
51% · 40 games47% · 128 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
45% · 454 games46% · 231 game
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSeleri
63% · 119 games48% · 238 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
52% · 209 games47% · 221 game
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 62%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2