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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 11 games
82%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 29 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 23 games
61%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 13 games
77%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 13 games
69%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
476 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
465 picks · 432 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
387 picks · 804 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 534 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 804 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 306 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
337 picks · 384 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:20
Natus Vincere 64%Runa Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
48% · 176 games52% · 95 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCopy
53% · 57 games51% · 355 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Mars
MarsBOOM
44% · 193 games51% · 176 games
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 328 games57% · 91 game
Naga SirenHduo
Naga Siren
Lion
LionAri
49% · 172 games51% · 209 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Natus Vincere 66%Runa Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYuragi
59% · 7 games53% · 95 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
49% · 126 games47% · 243 games
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyCopy
49% · 348 games56% · 30 games
Death Prophetnicky`cool
Death Prophet
Oracle
OracleKaori
52% · 57 games44% · 300 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Lion
LionAri
53% · 148 games54% · 18 games
DazzleHduo
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct28:8
Natus Vincere 66%Runa Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
53% · 207 games48% · 292 games
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckCopy
57% · 312 games48% · 87 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
48% · 251 game51% · 342 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 339 games50% · 213 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Lion
LionAri
48% · 195 games48% · 370 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3