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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Trailer Park Boysloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ivorywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Trailer Park Boys

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
NARMAN · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
eleven · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 2 games
100%

Ivory

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ken · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
475 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
387 picks · 804 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 535 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 802 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
347 picks · 306 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
335 picks · 383 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Trailer Park Boys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Trailer Park Boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Trailer Park Boys 63%Ivory 37%
The model gave 63% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 23:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSancity
63% · 23 games37% · 57 games
Queen of PainKen
Queen of Pain
Lycan
Lycan423
56% · 64 games49% · 185 games
TinyRupido
Tiny
Axe
Axeeleven
41% · 29 games45% · 40 games
RingmasterDric~
Ringmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSe
59% · 52 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
54% · 114 games
Game 2prediction missed8:19
Trailer Park Boys 61%Ivory 39%
The model gave 61% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Ivory in 23:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Sven423
55% · 84 games48% · 301 game
MorphlingKen
Morphling
Broodmother
Broodmothereleven
45% · 37 games52% · 128 games
KunkkaRupido
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
51% · 216 games41% · 124 games
RingmasterDric~
Ringmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
49% · 86 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
58% · 130 games
Game 3prediction missed20:29
Trailer Park Boys 61%Ivory 39%
The model gave 61% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Ivory in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
46% · 254 games58% · 301 game
PuckKen
Puck
Mars
Marseleven
42% · 125 games50% · 520 games
TinyRupido
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
45% · 351 game56% · 171 game
Shadow ShamanDric~
Shadow Shaman
Oracle
OracleSe
54% · 27 games
Tusk
TuskNARMAN
44% · 235 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTrailer Park Boys · 73%
Series resultIvory 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3