The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tech Free Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Dark Willow
Jing · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Raven · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Raven · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Raven · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Raven · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Mac · 1 game
Tech Free Gaming
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 11 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dalul · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
MamangDaya · 6 games
Razor
TraVins · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 5 games
Silencer
Varizh · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
543 picks · 615 bans
Ringmaster
475 picks · 240 bans
Jakiro
466 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
385 picks · 804 bans
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 535 bans
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 802 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 306 bans
Shadow Shaman
335 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Team Nemesis 53%Tech Free Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 51:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAkashi
TerrorbladeTraVins
DoomRaven
KunkkaMamangDaya
PangolierMac
Centaur Warrunnerdb-
SnapfireJing
Rikidalul
61% · 148 games
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
Game 2prediction correct31:8
Team Nemesis 54%Tech Free Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAkashi
TerrorbladeTraVins
Death ProphetMac
Dawnbreakerdb-
Dark SeerRaven
PangolierMamangDaya
BatriderJing
Witch DoctorVarizh
59% · 47 games
Slarkdalul
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 58%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2