The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 3:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Shopify Rebellionloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 15 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 15 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
Shopify Rebellion
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 14 games
Ringmaster
Hellscream · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
538 picks · 613 bans
Ringmaster
474 picks · 240 bans
Jakiro
463 picks · 431 bans
Terrorblade
382 picks · 794 bans
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 528 bans
Ancient Apparition
353 picks · 800 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 303 bans
Shadow Shaman
330 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 8
Model total79% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:9
Wildcard Gaming 35%Shopify Rebellion 65%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYamSun
GyrocopterTimado
PuckRCY
KunkkaYopaj
UndyingFayde
Dark SeerDavai
ChenSpeeed
Shadow ShamanHellscream
BaneBignum
Ogre MagiSkem
Game 2prediction correct8:29
Wildcard Gaming 30%Shopify Rebellion 70%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYamSun
SvenTimado
KunkkaFayde
BristlebackDavai
PuckRCY
Void SpiritYopaj
BatriderSpeeed
Shadow ShamanHellscream
Shadow DemonBignum
BaneSkem
Game 3prediction missed32:9
Wildcard Gaming 33%Shopify Rebellion 67%
The model gave 67% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYamSun
Dark SeerDavai
BeastmasterFayde
KunkkaYopaj
TinyRCY
UrsaTimado
UndyingSpeeed
Nature's ProphetSkem
BaneBignum
RikiHellscream
Game 4prediction correct46:28
Wildcard Gaming 33%Shopify Rebellion 67%
The model gave 67% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:16:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYamSun
AbaddonTimado
PangolierRCY
TimbersawDavai
Night StalkerFayde
Void SpiritYopaj
BatriderSpeeed
Shadow ShamanHellscream
BaneBignum
DisruptorSkem
Game 5prediction missed40:15
Wildcard Gaming 34%Shopify Rebellion 66%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYamSun
MorphlingTimado
BristlebackFayde
PangolierYopaj
InvokerRCY
BrewmasterDavai
BatriderSpeeed
UndyingSkem
TuskBignum
Shadow ShamanHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 79%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5