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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 29 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 23 games
61%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 13 games
69%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 11 games
73%

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 21 game
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 20 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
44%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 612 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
474 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 431 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
377 picks · 792 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 524 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
351 picks · 796 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 300 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
328 picks · 373 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:10
Runa Team 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Runa Team in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeShigetsu
49% · 158 games50% · 363 games
Dragon KnightEyesight
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
52% · 189 games50% · 54 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Doom
DoomAlberkaaa
46% · 142 games49% · 90 games
Void SpiritDifference
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
46% · 163 games59% · 18 games
PudgeGilgir
Pudge
Oracle
OracleHduo
50% · 26 games55% · 153 games
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed24:25
Runa Team 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Runa Team in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerShigetsu
56% · 26 games57% · 3 games
Phantom LancerEyesight
Phantom Lancer
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
50% · 82 games50% · 32 games
Death ProphetDifference
Death Prophet
Bristleback
BristlebackAlberkaaa
57% · 121 game45% · 130 games
Nature's ProphetGilgir
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
46% · 136 games50% · 156 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Undying
UndyingHduo
50% · 17 games49% · 61 game
DisruptorBb3px
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2