The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BABSJ and friendsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
Ringmaster
Hellscream · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 13 games
BSJ and friends
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
Sammyboy · 2 games
Muerta
Newsham · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Newsham · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
535 picks · 612 bans
Ringmaster
474 picks · 239 bans
Jakiro
461 picks · 431 bans
Terrorblade
377 picks · 792 bans
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 524 bans
Ancient Apparition
351 picks · 796 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 300 bans
Shadow Shaman
328 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Shopify Rebellion 82%BSJ and friends 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTimado
PuckiAnnihilate
Death ProphetYopaj
TerrorbladeSammyboy
TimbersawDavai
Batridermonkeys-forever
Naga SirenSkem
TinyNewsham
Dark WillowHellscream
Game 2prediction correct50:11
Shopify Rebellion 82%BSJ and friends 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonTimado
HuskarSammyboy
BristlebackDavai
TinyiAnnihilate
PuckYopaj
Brewmastermonkeys-forever
ClockwerkHellscream
WindrangerNewsham
DisruptorSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 94%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2