Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Dark Willow
Fernans · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
flacko · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Norma · 2 games
Chaos Knight
Fernans · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Marci
yowaai · 2 games
HULIGANI
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
erase · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Muerta
queezy · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
530 picks · 608 bans
Ringmaster
473 picks · 239 bans
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
372 picks · 789 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 519 bans
Ancient Apparition
346 picks · 795 bans
Tusk
340 picks · 301 bans
Shadow Shaman
326 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:26
TNL DOTA 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkadualrazee
Drow Rangerv1olent-
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Tinyerase
MarsNorma
MagnusMalik
JakiroFernans
Naga SirenRESPECT
Tuskflacko
Ringmastermrls
Game 2prediction missed17:34
TNL DOTA 34%HULIGANI 66%
The model gave 66% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
Dawnbreakerv1olent-
Pangolierdualrazee
BrewmasterMalik
BeastmasterNorma
Puckerase
LionFernans
Muertamrls
Baneflacko
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
Game 3prediction correct19:34
TNL DOTA 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Void Spiritdualrazee
Puckerase
KunkkaNorma
BrewmasterMalik
Nature's Prophetflacko
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
DisruptorFernans
Dark Willowmrls
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 76%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3