Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Edge
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 15 games
Muerta
Michael · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Vitaly · 7 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Michael · 7 games
Veritas Brothers
Dark Seeroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Oscar · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Oscar · 1 game
Clockwerk
Gardick · 1 game
Disruptor
Gardick · 1 game
Lina
Costabile · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Gardick · 1 game
Phoenix
Gardick · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 605 bans
Ringmaster
472 picks · 239 bans
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
371 picks · 779 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 516 bans
Ancient Apparition
344 picks · 793 bans
Tusk
335 picks · 299 bans
Shadow Shaman
322 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Veritas Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Edge
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:20
Edge 56%Veritas Brothers 44%
The model gave 56% on Edge — the game was taken by Edge in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doompayk
LinaCostabile
SniperPiPi
BristlebackOscar
TidehunterVitaly
ClockwerkGardick
RingmasterYadomi
Shadow ShamanMichael
Game 2prediction missed11:27
Edge 58%Veritas Brothers 42%
The model gave 58% on Edge — the game was taken by Veritas Brothers in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerVitaly
Templar AssassinCostabile
Storm SpiritPiPi
DawnbreakerOscar
Doompayk
JakiroGardick
Dark WillowYadomi
TuskMichael
Game 3prediction missed16:34
Edge 56%Veritas Brothers 44%
The model gave 56% on Edge — the game was taken by Veritas Brothers in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusapayk
Templar AssassinCostabile
Dark SeerVitaly
TidehunterOscar
TinyPiPi
ClockwerkGardick
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
Dark WillowMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteEdge · 67%
Series resultVeritas Brothers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3