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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 27 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BoBoKa · 23 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
zeal · 23 games
48%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 21 game
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 20 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 19 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
35%

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 25 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 21 game
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
天命 · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 603 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
372 picks · 773 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 512 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
341 picks · 791 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
315 picks · 347 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:16
Yakult Brothers 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEmo
50% · 93 games47% · 265 games
DoomAme
Doom
Tiny
Tinyflyfly
52% · 231 game47% · 47 games
AxeXxs
Axe
Enigma
EnigmaELeVeN
63% · 79 games51% · 66 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusBoBoKa
49% · 112 games42% · 213 games
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOli
55% · 79 games29% · 3 games
Skywrath MageXinQ
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct35:29
Yakult Brothers 37%Xtreme Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 21:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendflyfly
51% · 84 games57% · 261 game
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEmo
37% · 114 games47% · 89 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOli
57% · 70 games49% · 34 games
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierELeVeN
42% · 278 games48% · 205 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBoBoKa
49% · 84 games65% · 41 game
BanePoloson
Bane
Game 3prediction correct19:36
Yakult Brothers 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaflyfly
46% · 220 games52% · 291 game
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingEmo
53% · 228 games48% · 272 games
DoomAme
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierELeVeN
46% · 392 games53% · 72 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
51% · 158 games53% · 263 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Oracle
OracleOli
52% · 49 games48% · 149 games
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3