Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Magnussignature
BOOM · 18 games
Tinysignature
Sancity · 18 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 17 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 11 games
Muertasignature
QBFY · 10 games
eSpoiled
Tusksignature
Wein · 6 games
Windranger
Wein · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 3 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 3 games
Sven
ssnovv1 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 600 bans
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
Jakiro
466 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 772 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 509 bans
Ancient Apparition
341 picks · 788 bans
Tusk
327 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Shaman
312 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Natus Vincere 77%eSpoiled 23%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYuragi
Terrorbladessnovv1
TimbersawCopy
Enchantressasdekor_r
MagnusBOOM
WindrangerWein
BatriderAri
WarlockKaori
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Natus Vincere 76%eSpoiled 24%
The model gave 76% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomYuragi
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Ember SpiritCopy
Phoenixasdekor_r
Dark SeerBOOM
Shadow DemonWein
TuskKaori
Shadow ShamanAri
Game 3prediction correct29:9
Natus Vincere 77%eSpoiled 23%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYuragi
Terrorbladessnovv1
UnderlordBOOM
Silencerasdekor_r
EarthshakerCopy
TuskWein
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow DemonAri
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 90%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3