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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aim Possibleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 29 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 18 games
28%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 16 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 14 games
36%

Aim Possible

Warlock
Warlock
Aidar · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
0%
Razor
Razor
rubikon155 · 1 game
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Htrd · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 594 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
475 picks · 436 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
469 picks · 237 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
370 picks · 764 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 509 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 780 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
323 picks · 291 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 94 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Passion UA 54%Aim Possible 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
48% · 59 games47% · 278 games
Morphlingrubikon155
Morphling
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
52% · 58 games53% · 74 games
LeshracRain
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderMoonlight
47% · 148 games52% · 82 games
Naga SirenHtrd
Naga Siren
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
52% · 55 games
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
48% · 114 games
Game 2prediction missed20:30
Passion UA 54%Aim Possible 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
57% · 77 games45% · 211 games
Medusarubikon155
Medusa
Doom
DoomBatyuk
53% · 111 games46% · 85 games
SlardarRain
Slardar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
63% · 11 games50% · 64 games
DisruptorHtrd
Disruptor
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
51% · 76 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
48% · 85 games
Game 3prediction correct29:12
Passion UA 54%Aim Possible 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
50% · 103 games53% · 142 games
Shadow FiendRain
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomCrystallize
47% · 96 games52% · 90 games
Ursarubikon155
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
54% · 10 games49% · 44 games
DisruptorHtrd
Disruptor
Oracle
Oraclekreker
40% · 20 games
Lion
LionQBFY
52% · 47 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 57%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3