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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Excel Esportswin 1:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Curtainloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Excel Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Manic · 8 games
13%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Lina
Lina
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 4 games
25%

Team Curtain

Lion
Lion
Hara · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Hara · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Summer · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 591 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
475 picks · 436 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
469 picks · 236 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
370 picks · 758 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 506 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 778 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
322 picks · 290 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 94 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team Curtain
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Excel Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Excel Esports 59%Team Curtain 41%
The model gave 59% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteExcel Esports · 59%
Series resultExcel Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1