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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tech Free Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
33%

Tech Free Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razor
TraVins · 4 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dalul · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 589 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 437 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
468 picks · 235 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
369 picks · 756 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 773 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 514 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
321 picks · 290 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Tech Free Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:31
Ivory 45%Tech Free Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Tech Free Gaming — the game was taken by Ivory in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKen
44% · 291 game61% · 73 games
RazorTraVins
Razor
Tiny
TinyRupido
47% · 415 games55% · 243 games
Bristlebackdb-
Bristleback
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterDric~
45% · 85 games53% · 241 game
Storm SpiritMamangDaya
Storm Spirit
56% · 130 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Shadow Shaman
51% · 104 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct18:34
Ivory 48%Tech Free Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Tech Free Gaming — the game was taken by Tech Free Gaming in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsRupido
49% · 144 games52% · 254 games
Dragon KnightTraVins
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
50% · 235 games53% · 125 games
Timbersawdb-
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderDric~
47% · 257 games46% · 92 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
57% · 78 games
MiranaVarizh
Mirana
51% · 87 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct20:39
Ivory 47%Tech Free Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Tech Free Gaming — the game was taken by Tech Free Gaming in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKen
53% · 325 games43% · 369 games
Dragon KnightTraVins
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixRupido
51% · 212 games42% · 137 games
Tidehunterdb-
Tidehunter
Tusk
TuskDric~
50% · 212 games50% · 109 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
60% · 30 games
Death ProphetVarizh
Death Prophet
52% · 104 games
Bounty Hunterdalul
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTech Free Gaming · 53%
Series resultTech Free Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3