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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 27 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 26 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 21 game
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
53%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Daxak · 16 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 13 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Noticed · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 587 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 437 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
468 picks · 235 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
368 picks · 752 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
336 picks · 511 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
335 picks · 771 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
322 picks · 290 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
Nigma Galaxy 59%Virtus.pro 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
49% · 272 games46% · 287 games
TerrorbladeV-Tune
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaGhost
52% · 106 games50% · 232 games
MagnusLorenof
Magnus
Lina
LinaSumaiL
52% · 105 games52% · 170 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
45% · 267 games38% · 77 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Undying
UndyingGH
61% · 51 game65% · 35 games
BaneAntares
Bane
Game 2prediction correct24:32
Nigma Galaxy 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 49:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
51% · 376 games47% · 64 games
Drow RangerV-Tune
Drow Ranger
Puck
PuckSumaiL
57% · 309 games44% · 299 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
58% · 369 games43% · 398 games
PangolierDaxak
Pangolier
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionGH
56% · 126 games51% · 210 games
Dark WillowAntares
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
53% · 156 games43% · 365 games
TuskRein
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed23:21
Nigma Galaxy 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 59:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
52% · 231 game53% · 167 games
TerrorbladeV-Tune
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
52% · 298 games49% · 349 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Marci
MarciGhost
37% · 147 games60% · 138 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickOmaR
45% · 204 games51% · 202 games
Dark WillowAntares
Dark Willow
Io
IoGH
49% · 45 games54% · 69 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 66%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3